Before broadband becomes real two bottlenecks have to be addressed. Nokia's RoofTop system is one solution to the "last mile" problem, and its CityHopper is one alternative to the related problem of moving data from a local phone switch to the point of presence (POP) of a national ISP. We can hope that pressure from these devices will force cable, wire telephone, and licensed wireless providers to really compete with one another. I also expect to see new frequencies offered, both licensed and unlicensed, in ever-higher bands - that's the most important technology change I'm predicting.

Right now DSL and cable modems still suffer from glitches. Sites take too long to start downloading, and sharing of links to switches slows things down for everyone during busy hours. Those practical problems must be solved before the promise of Internet TV or radio can be fulfilled. That work will still take a few years to complete.

What do we do in the meantime? We work on fulfillment. We install real privacy safeguards. We further integrate the online and offline worlds (product and return databases still aren't integrated at most click-and-brick operations). We work on technologies like SET, on XML, and on truly integrating major business purchasing and marketing systems. 

All this has to happen, of course, against the backdrop of a capital-short world (it got soaked up by our gas tanks) and growing anger over the excesses of the last few years. The job destruction inherent in the Internet's potential will create a real backlash when unemployment is rising instead of falling. It won't be hard for demagogic politicians to then copy China, Switzerland, and other Clueless nations that, by making too many online actions illegal, only make law enforcement random and respect for law rare. 

The danger here is directly proportional to the depth of the coming downturn. Stagflation or a "garden-variety" downturn like that of 1991 can change Presidents. A full-fledged crash like 1929-1939 threatens the entire system. No crystal ball can accurately predict how bad things will be - that depends on the intelligence of economic policymakers. U.S. policymakers did some sensible things in reaction to the high debt loads of the late 1980s. Japanese policymakers hid their heads over the excessive savings of that time, and that nation has yet to recover. (The fact that its people have given up, and didn't show up for the last election, is a bad sign for that nation's stability.) 

I like your feedback but wouldn't you like to share your knowledge with other clued-in readers, and get their help as well? Now you can. The new discussion forum at a-clue.com is the place to do it. I'll see you there.

I'm still making myself available for consulting to a limited number of clients, with an eye toward assuring their long-term success. If you're interested give me a shout at 404-373-7634.

Also, please pass this along to friends and urge them to join our list. And don't forget our new e-mail address .

I write daily for ClickZ, and weekly at Andover.News. I write monthly for  NetMarketing, Boardwatch, and  Intellectual Capital. I've been in Advertising Age and the Chicago Tribune .Once every other month I'm in CLEC Magazine. Twice each month I'm at OneChannel.Net  and I'll be coming soon to ISPWorld. You can always buy my book . Subscription instructions are at the bottom of each issue.

Remember that it's journalism that keeps the Clues coming...

Takes on the News

Technologies and Trends For the Future 

The implication of technologies in business is as important as the technologies themselves. Here are some things to look for in the coming year:
 

• Ad-tracking technologies are useless for ordinary banners, because banners are useless. New methods must be found for reaching people with effective online ad messages, and they will be. That's when the tracking technologies become worthwhile. 
• P3P is not nearly as important as an honest market in private data. Until companies experienced at handling government privacy regulations enter this market, trust won't expand and the market won't grow.
• Ipv6  is coming. The danger is it will place controls on Internet users that will further spur the growth of the online underground. Tracking usage and eliminating anonymity are the kinds of steps that will be resisted, making it impossible to distinguish terrorists from mere protesters. 
• Voice chips installed inside new cell phones will turn today's text into tomorrow's real information. That, combined with E911, save-and-transmit credit card numbers and something like WAP technology, will be required to build wireless commerce. 
• Scandinavian, Israeli, Indian, and Taiwanese technology firms will continue to outpace those from other nations outside the U.S. on the Internet. An installed base, a free people, and the rule of law are all necessary to the growth of e-commerce. 
• The debate over Internet governance will finally be joined, as individual users and small businesses face the wrath of nation states, ethnicity, religion, and the world's Fortunate 500. This debate is the greatest threat to the Internet's continued growth, because there's little incentive for the powerful to give-in to the demands of the powerless. Change will come when democratic people overthrow Clueless governments based on the principles of a free and open Internet. 

Clued-in, Clueless

Clued-in is Bob Geldof, not for NetAid  or "Live Aid" . We're honoring him for asking the right questions regarding his start-ups Deckchair and WAPWorld . 

Clueless is Microsoft.NET , which is still too Windows-centric to succeed in gaining share against Linux, Solaris, and the PalmOS. You win by supporting others well and offering something better, not by supporting others poorly and offering something proprietary. 

A-Clue.Com is a free weekly email publication registered with the U.S. Copyright Office as number TXu 888-819. Subscribers can receive either a .txt file or .htm file. The .htm version features links that become active from inside a browser. To take your name off the list, simply write REMOVE as the subject, or content, of a message replying to any issue. To request your free copy, write us at Dana@a-clue.com  or +A_Clue . To subscribe you can also write to a-clue@list.audettemedia.com  with the word "subscribe" in the subject. (Address your request for the .txt version to a-clue_textonly@list.audettemedia.com . You can unsubscribe with a note to the same addresses and the word "unsubscribe" in the subject.. We're on the Web at http://www.a-clue.com and http://www.ppn.org/clue.